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为什么美股 IPO 首日,不开盘了就买,还要等很久才能交易?

Alibaba IPO: A study in price transparency

11小时以前Bob Pisani解答了这个问题。

昨晚一直关注阿里巴巴,看了网页直播。明明已经敲钟很久,但画面上大家都什么也不做,只是站在那静静等着。所以也十分好奇,上知乎搜索了阿里巴巴、IPO没有发现类似问题。所以直接在纽交所的iPad版APP搜索,发现了上面链接的文章。得到了解答。

原文如下:

Alibaba IPO: A study in price transparency

Bob Pisani| @BobPisani 11 Hours

Alibaba IPO: A study in price transparency

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Alibaba signage at the New York Stock Exchange at their IPO, September 19, 2014.

Alibaba (BABA) priced at $68, opened at $92.70, closed at $93.89. But the most interesting part of the process is the price discovery mechanism. How do you decide what price you should open at?

In the case of Alibaba, there was enormous demand right at the outset. In fact, there were essentially NO sellers at the initial price of $68.

The initial price indication was given a little after 9:50 a.m. ET: Roughly 25 million shares paired off (equal number of buyers and sellers) at $80-$83. Even at that price, there were bids for millions of shares more where there were no corresponding sellers.

How an IPO gets priced, step by step

What to do? Increase the price. The next two indications were stepped up in $3 intervals: $82-$85 and $84-$87. Then about 10:43 a.m., the indication began to tighten to a $2 band: $86-$88, and then the indications starting coming more frequently:

By the time of the final indication, there were only a few million shares that had not been paired off. This was a good indication that we were getting close to opening.

But the stock did not open until 11:53 a.m., when 48 million shares were sold at $92.70.

Why did it take 25 more minutes from the time of the last indication to open? Because there were buyers sitting around watching the action, with intention to buy, who didn’t want to act until the last minute, for whatever reason. Their last-minute bids, put in just as the stock was ready to open, prolonged the process.

In other words, it’s a dynamic process. It is changing while you are watching it.

It’s a great study in Game Theory, the study of watching multiple agents all acting in their best interests and responding to incentives (lower price if you’re a buyer, higher if you’re a seller), while trying to anticipate what everyone else will do.

Bob PisaniCNBC “On-Air Stocks” Editor

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下面是本人翻译(完全外行,术语方面请谅解):

阿里巴巴首次公开募股:浅谈价格透明度的问题

Bob Pisani | @BobPisani 11 Hours

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

2014年9月19日,阿里巴巴在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。

阿里巴巴(代码BABA)发行价为每股68美元,开盘价为92.70美元,收盘价为93.89美元。但这其中最有趣的部分,可能要数确定价格的过程和背后的原理了。那么,一只股票的开盘价到底是如何确定的?

以阿里巴巴为例,股票发售开始时,市场上买方需求量庞大,但根本没有人愿意以68美元的发行价卖出,就是说卖家数量为0。(当然也就无法完成“买卖”的交易过程)

其实在早上9:50,开盘价预测就出来了:大约有2500万股已经达成了买卖意向,价格为80到83美元。就算在这个价位上,也还有买方不断出价,想要购入数百万股规模的阿里巴巴股票,但这部分出价没有卖方。

IPO是如何一步步确定价格的

没有卖方怎么办?买方会提高出价。于是我们看到后来预估开盘价又上涨了两次,分别是82~85和84~87,波动范围为3美元。大概在10:43的时候,预估价波动范围开始收紧,变为86~88美元,价格波动区间为2美元。随后预估价开始了更频繁的波动。

·10:53 a.m.: $87 – $89

·11:00 a.m.: $88 – $90

·11:05 a.m.: $89 – $91

·11:17 a.m.: $90 – $91

·11:24 a.m.: $91 – $92

·11:28 a.m.: $92 – $93

到最后一轮预估价格的时候,没有配对成功的只有几百万股了,这就意味着我们离开盘很近了。

但直到11:53,4800万股以92.70美元的价格被卖出,才算开盘了。

为什么最后一轮预测(11:28 a.m.: $92 – $93)之后,又过了25分钟才开始交易?因为买家们都在观望,他们都不到最后一刻不出手,原因可能千奇百怪。最后一分钟才出价的现象和时刻准备开始交易的紧张局势,二者共同延长了这个较劲的过程。

换句话说,这是个动态的进程。在你观察的同时,局势也在瞬息万变。

这种情况在博弈论中属于经典案例,博弈论主要观察研究的就是多个个体或团体在不同的兴趣点和刺激因素之下的行为模式。比如你是买家,你想要的是更低的价格,而如果你是卖家,你当然想要更高的成交价。在买卖开始之前,双方都会基于对对方行为的预测来行动。

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看完老外的文章,个人理解是:

1买卖双方需要就价格达成一致才能开始交易过程

2第一笔交易开始之前,价格波动由大变小

3直到基本确定之后,大家也还会观望一会儿

原创文章,作者:花样财经,如若转载,请注明出处:https://www.massflowmeter.cn/406/406.html

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